will lead to, quote, taco trucks on every corner. >> it's about the running mates and surrogates on the campaign trail today. tim kaine makes two stops in >> things are going badly for you, and you lose, you start blaming somebody else? then you don't have what it takes to be in this job. there is no serious person out there who would suggest somehow that you could even -- you could even rig america's elections. i would advise mr. trump to stop whining and go try to make health insurance case to get votes. and if he got the most votes, then it would be my expectation of hillary clinton to have a gracious concession speech and work with him in order to make

sure that the american people benefit from an effective government, and it would be my job to welcome mr. trump regardless of what he said about me or my differences with him on my opinions, and escort him over to the capitol in which there would be a peaceful transfer of power. >> good morning. it is wednesday, october 19th. welcome to "morning joe." with us on set we have veteran columnist mark barnacle. >> wait, wait, wait. what's going on with you guys? are you guys asleep? >> they are. >> contributor mike barnacle. >> chair of the department of african-american studies at princeton university, author of the book "democracy is black" columnist for time magazine, eddie cloud jr. >> are you say verified for him. one, two, three.

verified. we're trying to get fwtwitter t verify eddie. twitter, verify eddie now. what's wrong with you? >> he is so verified. >> you know why they're not doing it? it's -- it's they hate you because you are a princeton man. >> yeah. >> that makes sense. >> it is. >> they hate you because you're a princeton man. >> we've got some battleground polls for you. >> there's this little christmas club, right? right? so they said yesterday it's now down with trump an8% chance, single digit chance. we don't have it, alex, do we? not yet? anyway, let's first of all, talk about the landscape while he is getting -- >> i want to read the story. >> there was a sign at the blue jays game that said they're down 3-0. so you're telling me there's a

chance. these swing state polls are -- >> washington post-survey monkeys, devastating, mike barnacle, deep in the heart of texas. a canary flooder coughing in a coal mine. >> it's not just this poll in texas. it's now three other polls that show a three or four point spread in texas. >> democratic strategists have been saying for years that in time texas will be competitive on the electoral map they were expecting that to happen eight years from now. main 12 years from now. it's happening reason. it's competitive today. >> take a look at the new survey-monkey poll of 15 battle grounds conducted with the washington post. it shows hillary clinton with leads of at least four points in states totaling 304 electoral

votes. 34 more than the 270 needed to win the presidency. in four-way matchups clinton has 11 point leads inew hampshire and virginia. eight-point leads in michigan and new mexico. seven points in colorado. six points in north carolina and pennsylvania, and four points in georgia. while donald trump is ahead by five in iowa, four points in nevada, three points in ohio, and arizona, and just two points in florida and texas, a more extensive poll of texas from the university of houston also shows a tight race there. trump has add add clinton by 41% to clinton's 38% in wisconsin. another poll puts clinton ahead by eight points. at 3% independent apparently jill stein -- in nevada clinton has jumped to a seven point lead in the monmouth poll.

47% to 40%. >> so, mike barnacle, you go through all the polls. if if you want three numbers to talk about just how dramatic the polling has gone state by state because yesterday we were throwing -- showing three swing states that showed the race close, and at least those three swing states, but look at texas, look at georgia, and look at arizona, and any republican nominee struggling with those three states -- he is down four points right now in georgia, but any republican nominee in late october, going into the last of eight, is in big trouble. >> there's another state to throw in there too in terms of the ramifications for the united states senate. that's nevada where harry reid's seat is up, and i think if you are talking to anyone in the business, six months, a year ago, they felt fairly

comfortable that a republican would grab that seat from harry reid. it appears now that that is seriously in question. >> there's been a swing in the last month. it's ten points since september 13th. >> here we go. >> you know what's happened with the ten points, the republican's problem has distanced himself from the republican nominee. donald trump. now he is bleeding out. it is a lose-lose for a lot of these republican candidates. >> we saw this. we knew this was going to happen. clinton gave them the open that donald trump is unlike any republican i've ever -- he is not -- he is unlike the republicans i've dealt with in the past, so there was an opening. it gave them space now on the ballot. now he is like velcro, and some of them can't get away from him. if they distance themselves, they're done. if they're connected, they're done. >> wow. >> we certainly have seen in nevada that in a close race like

nevada distancing themselves has certainly hurt. >> right. >> but you have portman, who is doing very well. the washington post said marco rubio is in a tighter race than expected. one other bit of news. some political reports have now moved actually colorado and virginia into the clinton camp safely out of reach which now means donald trump's path to 270 has to go through pennsylvania, and that ain't happening. >> yeah. >> all of this seems to have shaken donald trump's confidence in polls. remember, he always liked pulled them out of his pocket and would read them to his audiences. they were once a staple of his campaign rallies. trump did not read the polls to his audiences in colorado yesterday because he says they're no longer accurate. >> even though we're doing pretty good in the polls, i don't believe the polls anymore. i don't believe them. i don't believe tlhem, and if

there's ten bad, that's the only ones they show. believe me, we're doing great. now they say we're tied in colorado. i don't think so. i'll be honest. i mean, something is going on here. something. you can't believe anything you see. i don't even believe the polls. i see the polls. they're not terrible. they're sort of good. actually, if the people come out and vote, they're very nervous, i have a feeling this is another brexit. >> willy, that is many trump supporters. we have another brexit. if it's two, three, four points, maybe it's another brexit. if it's seven, eight, nine, ten, which has been the trend across this week, there's not that much of a hidden vote anywhere. >> if you do a back of the envelope map hillary clinton has leads of four points or month, so outside the margin of error. in states that add up to 304 electoral votes. trump states in that same way

with 138 electoral votes. even if he won arizona, ohio, florida, these toss-up states that we're talking about, he is still based on that map doesn't get to 270. it's hard to see at this point any path for donald trump. >> there is no path, mike, without a five-point swing in the swing states that we're looking at yesterday. i guess that leads to the next story, which is the third debate battle or ekwilent to the thriller in manila in to 16 politics. what does donald trump have to do? can he do anything tonight other than bring barack obama's half brother to the debate to pick up five points? it's a good lesson for us all. i remember my first campaign school. i said what's the number one rule. he said if you have a half brother who is kenyan, always be nice to him. right? >> always preach that, yes? >> i said two things.

i said that, and i said -- listen, we all have relatives, mr. president. we understand. we understand. we all have relatives. we're praying for you and the family -- extended family tonight. >> you know, joe, i shudder to think of what he might do tonight. >> what would you have him do to pick up five points? >> i think it's going to be a tough night for him. >> he turns it around with at least four or five points based on the poles yesterday. how does he do it? >> how would i have him do it? there's no way in the world he can do this. i would have him talk calmly and confidently about the bulk of his supporters and how much they've been neglected and forgotten by the establishment in washington, establishment in wall street, but calmly and confidently, but he cannot do that because he has historically over the months of his campaign

confused what he sees and hears in the hall in front of him for the country. he has been speaking to a neco-chamber for over a year, and he gets that adulation from the crowd, and that's all he feels and hears. he doesn't really feel the country. >> they're very big crowds, and for, eddie, the first nine months, ten months, 11 months, 12 months of his campaign, big crowds. equal big poll results. equal big victories. as we started saying back in the spring, you got to shift. you go into a general election, those crowds won't win it for you. what would you have donald trump do tonight if you were flying out to las vegas and had his ear and he would listen to you? >> that would be hilarious. i would actually insist that he hit her on trade, that he hits those -- he hits the questions

that really impact the folks in the midwest america, folks in ohio, people who are struggling. i'm sorry. >> no. you're getting emotional just thinking about having -- >> he is choking up. time with trump. >> people who are struggling. >> you're struggling right now zbloosh i know. >> would you like some water? >> what i suspect is something you have been tweeting. beware of the person that has nothing to lose. >> oh, yeah. >> i think he is going to double down on the strategy that we saw in the second debate. instead of thinking about growing those folks who are supporting him, he is going to come in really hard and we'll find ourselves in the gutter. z >> if he does that, mike barn arkle, and let's be blunt about this, if what we're hearing about trump tv is true and if that's what they're focussing on right now, then your strategy for winning the presidency, which he may think at this point

is beyond reach, is far different than your strategy the day after, which is getting a hard core 37% to 40%, even at 35% to 38% group of supporters who are aggrieved and who believe the system is rigged and then selling subscriptions to them for $9.99 a month to stream trump tv. that seems to be the message right now. boiling it down to the core. not apologizing. you know, basically it's a no apologies tour. >> but the question, if if you had donald trump's ear, you could have donald trump's ear, but his ear is a block. the other day through an odd set of circumstances, don't ask me how -- >> please, i hope this story doesn't end up with you and donald trump -- >> i spent about three hours with someone who is playing a very significant role in donald trump's campaign. i asked this person -- i said,

does trump realize the damage that he is doing to himself and to the process by continually harping on a rigged election and in certain places, you know, the election is going to be rigged, and the response was no, he does not realize it because he is so filled with anger about the potential -- about the prospect of losing that he can't see beyond that. he is so filled with rage that that's what's fueling his campaign. >> really? i must say, i haven't picked that up. i picked up a more calculated, more calculated trump. >> calculated for beyond the election. >> for trump tv. >> more calculated trump that understands that you have your hard core group of 37%, 36%. what is that 40 million people out there? doesn't matter. roger ales since 1996, even

before all of these stories came out over the past six months, was never accepted by polite society in new york city. people always, always besmirched his character. even before all of these allegations came out against him. donald trump, willy, doesn't need to be accepted by polite society to make hundreds of millions of dollars on trump tv. >> think about how depressing that is for republicans who don't want hillary clinton to be president, that they have a candidate who is thinking about his tv network and not becoming president and installing supreme court justices. he put out the last couple of days a couple of things that a real presidential campaign would have put out. ethics reform, and yesterday he talked about congressional term limits, but if you watched his speeches in colorado, his speeches weren't about that. his speeches were about the conspiracies now. he said in that clip we just played, "you can't believe anything you see." he has the conspirit oral mind,

where he wants of everybody to know that if she wins, it won't be fair, and we'll have to do something about it. we'll have to take our country back some other way. >> if you are donald trump, mika, and you have always said this. he knows how to go in and read a crowd. >> yeah. >> people going to trump rallies do not want his four-point plan for judicial reform. they want to hear about how the media is lying to them, about how washington is rigged, and how everything that's happened over the past 30 years has happened because of bad leadership from people like the bushes and the clintons. >> and they can trust that -- >> he is an outsider. he proves that every day. he is an outsider. they want to hear an outsider rail against the system. >> but to that i think he could run into some problems. it's the third and final

presidential debate of the 2016's, and it days place tonight at 9:00 eastern time in las vegas. it's moderated by chris wallace of fox news. now, tonight's debate could be more policy focused. the topics will be the national debt, and entitlements, immigration, and the economy, the supreme court, foreign hot spots, and fitness to be president. but it is, once again, personality politics that are grabbing the predebate spotlight. the "new york times" reports the clinton campaign has requested that the spouses of the candidates proceed directly to their seats and not cross paths. >> they don't want to shake hands. >> they didn't want that awkward moment again? this comes after the trump campaign attempted to have former president bill clinton come face-to-face with women who have accused him of sexual assault in the last debate in st. louis. the trump campaign revealed some of its special guests in the debate audience tonight, including, as we mentioned, president obama's half brother malik, and pat smith, who made

that tearful speech at the republican national convention blaming the death of her son, sean, on state department communication specialist killed in the benghazi terror attacks. hillary clinton's guests include a prominent supporter, meg whitman and billion aaire invesr mark cuban. >> mark cuban must get under trump's skin. >> he knows how to. >> does it feel like a high school campaign? >> it's childish. >> i think it could be a tough night for donald trump. >> you keep saying that. why? >> because i think they're going to hone in on policy, and i think he is at his best when he is attacking her. look, i don't think it's the best for this country, but he is at his strongest when he is attacking her the way he was in the last debate and doing what you were saying, which is talking to his people about how they have been left behind. i say his people, a lot of

people in this country. i think if you try and double and triple down on policy, it could be a very rough night. >> willie, you also looked at the moderator, a guy that you with least likely want to get into a debate off in a dark alley somewhere, and that's chris wallace. he is a tough guy. he doesn't put up with b.s. any more than his father did, and i suspect if there is trouble for trump tonight, it will come from wallace. >> he is good at this, chris wallace is very good at it. it's funny, though, says to see -- we've seen him all three debates. here will be the topics for the night. that plan goes out the window the moment trufr sfarts going off. he will listen to a question about immigration or some specific policy and go off and do whatever he is going to do to attack hillary clinton. i just wonder, it will be interesting to watch is he serious about winning? in other words, is he going to perform tonight like he wants to expand beyond his core support,

or does he bore in the way he did in the last debate, the way he has for the last week and a half since that debate and talk about the things that appeal to the core group or does he really want to expand his base? it's getting late. we're under three weeks now. >> i also wonder if chris wallace addresses the latest e-mail issues pertaining to the emails, you know, that have been revealed in the wiki-leaks. >> oh, yeah. i suspect he will. >> that could be tough for her. >> listen, i think chris wallace can be extremely fair. he is going to go after both sides tough. he always does. >> he is a professional. >> i tell you, he is so much of a professional that it's surprising that a democratic nominee has agreed a debate with fox news as the last debate. there's only one reason why that's happened, and it's because of chris wallace. because they know they can trust chris wallace to be fair and down the middle. >> still ahead on morning joerks a brief education in latin. what is the definition of quid pro quo? the fbi official in the middle

of the controversy goes on record about that and, later, senator mark warner on the race for his battleground state. ohio's republican reacts to donald trump's continued claims about a rigged election. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. afoot and light-hearted i take to the open road. healthy, free, the world before me, the long brown path before me leading wherever i choose.

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>> secretary of state's emails prior to its public release, and that the two matters were not linked. there was no quid pro quo, nor was there any bargaining. hmm. >> well, there wasn't any bargaining because fbi agents said no. in fact, he said he picked up the phone, and kennedy said i need a favor. then he said, well, we need some help ourselves. then kennedy told him what favor he needed and -- >> the chairman of the house judiciary committee, bob goodlach, called attorney general loretta lynch to investigate writing. >> that will help. >> wasn't there a meeting with bill clinton? >> yeah. >> remember that scene where you had the corrupt cop that comes in at the end as fletch is about to get killed, and chevy chase goes, oh, great rr, the police.

he is going to get shot by the police too. oh, great, the attorney general. she'll clear this up. >> to barter away american national security interests for plainly political purposes is appalling and may rise to the level of a -- >> i don't know about that. >> come on. >> i mean, i don't know about that. i do know, though, that kennedy clearly tried to have a quid pro quo. the fbi agent found out what they wanted, and he said no. >> yeah. >> and there was the attempt, and there was the bargaining. the fbi guy said no, and the fbi said he didn't push, nothing. it was just the end of it. i'll trade you this for that, and it was a no. >> it was a proposed quid pro quo, and it didn't become the quid pro quo until the fbi said no. >> i guess you wonder what other -- ah, whatever. >> ah. >> just shouldn't have a private server, okay? you just shouldn't have one because that's deceitful, right? >> yes.

>> yes. >> it's also the core of the biggest weakness of her campaign thus far, private server, because it leads -- >> oh, everyone says stop picking on the clintons. we're not. just get a private server next time. >> let me say this right now. >> oh, my god. >> wikileaks, they've been putting stuff out. it keeps coming out. >> horrible. >> it's a lot of this stuff if, again, if marco rubio, we've said this before, or jeb bush or so many of these other candidates, we would only be talking about wiki leaks right now, and the are race would, in fact, be over. hillary clinton might even be in legal trouble after the election, but that's not the case. she's going to get elected if these polls hold up, and i just -- i want to say right now weeks before the election that the republican will not only be doing a disservice to the country, but a disservice to themselves.

he can't spend the next 40 days investigating and, you know, claiming felonies here. we've got to stop this as a country. >> we talked about supreme court justices and appointments a couple of days ago. everybody has got to put their political weapons down. >> i mean, we've had eight years, maybe longer, actually, but specifically in the last eight years when the wheels of government have been frozen because both sides go at each other in terms of trying to delegitimatize president -- >> i would say 16. george w. bush was called a nazi. >> i'll go with 16. when are they going to stop doing this and govern? that's the question.

>> that is. you can see it coming. like my old torts professors say, you should see this next question coming like a freight train out of the mist. we should see this coming, are eddie, that if hillary clinton wins, there's going to be one chairman, chairwoman after another on the republican side talking about investigations. if they spend their last two weeks talking about how they're going to investigate hillary clinton, they're going to help elect a democratic house and a democratic senate. that's what they're going to do because republicans want to see washington work, and they don't want their chairman and chairwomen spending four years investigating other people. they want them working for the people. >> yeah. they want them working, and they want to work. they want their lives to fundamentally be transformed. they want to be able to afford college for their kids. they want to be able to retire. i mean, the basic things we've been talking about on this show, right? then what do you do?

you have senator mccain say that they're probably going to block her supreme court nominations. we with already hearing before she even gets elected that the opposition will be as forceful and as strong as it was as barack obama was. >> now we're saying that helg hillary rodham clinton has a 90% chance. don't start delegitimizing even before trump or clinton are elected president. just stop it. >> that's the political and media world we live in. >> exactly. >> we got to burn somebody to the ground to retain your own credibility, and that's a very bad thing. >> maybe we can get some guidance from the opinion page. those are straight ahead. "morning joe" is coming right back. we're talking within a 1% difference in reliability of each other. and, sprint saves you 50%

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>> our economy once dominated the world. today jobs are gone. factories closed because of bad trade deals pushed by the clintons that sent our jobs to other countries. donald trump's plan. renegotiate nafta, stop foreign nation from cheating us, cut taxes to reopen factories. donald trump knows business, and he will fight for the american worker. >> this is not an ordinary time, and this is not an ordinary election.

toipt as i understand a message to every boy and girl and indeed to the entire world that america already is great, but we are great because we are good. i want us to heal our country and bring it together. we have to start getting the economy to work for everyone. not just those at the top. making the best education system from preschool through college, making it affordable because that's, i think, the best way for us to get the future that our children and our grandchildren deserve. my vision of america is an america where everyone has a place. this is the america that i know and love. if we set those goals and we go together, there's nothing that america can't do. >> that was a look at parts of new ads by both campaigns released ahead of tonight's third and final debate in las vegas. >> let's talk about that. those were good ads. >> yeah, they were. >> they really were. >> you talked about trump hitting on the economic policy.

that really should be his closing message, says that 30-second ad. it's really helped. >> if he is going to have a chance, but i don't think he can stay on message, though. >> that would be the message you would have him follow, though. >> if he would listen to me. >> the first 20 minutes where he talked about -- that's the strongest portion of the campaign, the first 20 minutes where he is in command. he talked about economic anxiety. i think that is the area where she is most vulnerable. >> he would need to focus laser-like on the very compelling 30-second ad. >> joining us now from sin city is it nbc news correspondent halle jackson. joining us also here on set, co-founder jim vandejas. what are you watching for in

tonight's showdown? >> i have talked to a couple of -- the idea that, hey, donald trump doesn't listen p to me, but if he drks i would tell him to focus on the economy, focus on the trade because that is where he landed punches on hillary clinton. he was unable to take the -- resist taking the bait when she dangles it in front of him. i think there's a lot of people who are watching to see can he actually make that change here tonight? sf he did it on the way to rallies, and he said once he got here to vegas. he is sort of doing his own kind of getting ready. it's very different from what hillary clinton is doing, right? she's got the binders and the podium and sort of the big run-through. trump is not doing any of that because he hasn't this entire cycle so far. he is not going to change heading into the last one. as far as gapffs, we are told that he is expected to invite president obama's half brother in the audience. the news of that, by the way, coming to nbc just hours.

>> he will also be bringing someone who blamds hillary clinton for the death of her son in benghazi. we expect that will be something that he will try to talk about tonight, but, of course, he will be playing some against given the last couple of weeks that he has had. think about what has changed? he has some questions to answer for tonight. >> so halle jackson, says thank you. jim van dejas. america's election is giving the world some serious anxiety. making predictions three weeks before the u.s. election is risky, but the likeliest bet right now is that the center

will hold in american politics, and hillary clinton will be elected president. that's important for a lot of reasons. it could begin to stabilize an unsettled world. traveling over three continents i have heard widespread anxiety about the state of the world. the u.s. election on current evidence will probably yield a modest consolidation for global order after a period of stress. the good news is the bad news seems less likely than a few years ago, but as november 8th proechds, the world is holding its breath. >> what's the most infuriating part, if if you step back, we're in so much of a better position. it would much rather be us than china or germ an or england. you wouldn't get that if you are watching this campaign because it's all been about despair and dysfunction. yes, the world will take that as a cue, and everybody will take a

big deep breath and say the economy is not going to react poorly to a clinton election. the question is then what? >> unless you have to, right? >> don't retaliate. if there is a felony or something clear out there, then whether trump wins or clinton wins, of course you have to investigate. please, we don't need four years of nonstop fishing expeditions.

>> i do think the best outcome for the country is divided government. at least check of hillary clinton's worst impulses and you don't do in ig that startles the markets or the world. >> remember on the investigations question, donald trump at almost every rally has called hillary clinton a criminal and his crowds have said lock her up, lock her up. that energy is out there among the grassroots of the republican party. conservatives. they're going to be putting pressure on their congressmen or their senators to put the heat on hillary clinton. >> we're in a moment of transition. what's going to happen after this election? i don't think the center is going to hold. i don't think business as usual will be remain. something -- whether it's going to be the left pushing hillary clinton or whether it's going to be root it -- >> you're exactly right. the left is going to be pushing. >> it's going to come from both sides. business as usual will not

obtain. >> that is an important, important point. if you think about this, everyone thinks, well, just the republican party that's been radicalized. the country has been radicalized. there's not a center. the pressure that's going to be on her and where the power is, go back three or four months. where is the energy of the democratic party? it's on the far left of that party. it gets masked a little bit because of president obama and because of the election. at the moment there's now power. the democratic party has it. where does the money come from. who is active on social media? who is active -- >> there are parts of the media, one of many things that the mainstream media has missed over the past five, six, seven years, everybody was so focused on how conservative the republican party had become. they were so obsessed with the tea party that they never attached a name to the progressives that slowly but surely took over even in the senate. you look at the members of the

senate today and compare them to 10, 15 years ago, it's not even. it is going to -- it's going to make if hillary clinton wins, it's going to make her life much more difficult because she's going to be pulled from the left and the right. >> a number of southern democrats are gone. one or two left in the house. anybody who self-iechz as a new democrat basically a centrist democrat, the ranks have shrunk in it correlation with the republican party. >> thoor out of lock step with where i think both parties are or where the country is, and i think that that is where so much of the negative governing energy comes from. >> yeah. >> you've got people that need

to learn how to do a deal. they need to learn -- >> skeptical. >> how to meet in the middle. >> there's ekwifl ens of both sides being crazy. what we see here is this. the contradiction of a particular economic philosophy are in full view and that we're vlg particularly constituencies within the united states who are bringing those contradictions to light and offering a different vision of how the country should take itself -- how the country should proceed. to the extent you have these competing visions of what the good life looks like, of what flourishing looks like, i think it's actually wrong-headed to equate the far right with the far left. >> thern bragging about how much more progressive the democratic caucus was and -- you think it's a great thing. >> absolutely.

>> but if you are hillary clinton -- they're trying to drag you far left on trade and a lot of other issues. it's not a great thing for her. it's not a great thing for republicans. it's not a great thing for -- >> the one thing that you and i agree on, though, is that the economic philosophy that has governed this country over the last few decades is bankrupt. you and i -- because it has left middle america behind and those on the margins behind. when she comes and she thinks she's going to govern from that place, the senate, it's not going to hold. >> etdy, in the last -- in this hard core progressives and hard core conservatives don't work with each other, what we agree on doesn't matter. >> nothing is going to happen. >> you have eight years of dysfunction. i who say, somebody that worked for president obama early on said the most frustrating thing about him was that every person they had ever worked for started with a position here, and republicans started with a

position there. they would fight. they would scratch. they would claw. they would meet in the middle. they would figure out a deal. president obama started over here, and he said i'm just going to talk and keep talking until i convince them that i'm right and they're wrong. now, anybody that's talked to conservatives in the house, hard core conservatives in the house, they think the same way. i was seen as an out and out nut job. i never sat with republicans. i went and sat down and talked to democrats. most of my friends were democrats. i figured out how to do deals. that's why i did deals, you know, whether it was, you know, with harold ford or whether it was, you know, ron delms or even bill clinton on long-term health care.

figured out how to make things work together. that's just not happening now. we have to have people that figure out -- we would sit in the chamber and talk and we would say, hey, we have to figure out -- i know we agree on things. we both love america. you know? and -- >> we have to see -- i know we have to see what's impeericly the case. it's coming from hard core progress sifz and hard core conservatives. whether or not your idea that you just got -- you have to move to -- >> single parent was off the table. there are a whole bunk of progressive that is were disappointed in the way in which

he -- >> like you. >> oh, of course. you know i am, right? and then i should say really quickly, many of us were disturbed when he first got elected that it was all of this post-partisan stuff. he was reaching across the aisle, and they said we have to make him -- >> i think -- my view is when i'm talking about craziness, i'm talking about the polarization. each side is as polarized in the house, and i think democrats would be making a huge mistake if they're looking at this electorate and saying they want to be anti-trade, pro-regulation, pro-tax increases in a very progressive way. i don't think that's where the country is right now. >> all right. >> certainly not where -- >> we'll continue this conversation. it's a good one. jim, thank you very much. coming up, could hillary clinton actually win texas? the washington post -- >> whoa. >> -- tackles that question. >> that's got you laughing. >> look at him. >> look at that. he is so happy. okay. we'll be back with more oish morning joe" and a happy eddie.

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>> it does help with digestion and circulation. >> the washington post has a new analysis out of the battleground states that suggests the election is all but over. >> makes you look cool. >> republican strategist -- >> until you die. >> bloomberg politics mark halperin joins the conversation. we're back in a moment. ears. you named it brad. you loved brad. and then you totaled him. you two had been through everything together. two boyfriends, three jobs... you're like nothing can replace brad. then liberty mutual calls... and you break into your happy dance. if you sign up for better car replacement™, we'll pay for a car that's a model year newer with 15,000 fewer miles than your old one. liberty stands with you™.

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>> even though we're doing pretty good in the polls, i don't believe the polls anymore. i don't believe them. if there's ten and one or two bad ones, that's the only one they show. believe me, folks, we're doing great. now they say we're tied in colorado. i don't think so. i'll be honest. >> you can't believe anything you see. i don't believe the polls. they say they're table. they're actually good. i have a feeling this is another brexit. >> welcome back to "morning joe." it's wednesday, october 19th. mike barnacle and princeton university's eddie -- >> we have legend on the left, verified on the right. >> he is not verified yet. >> hey, twitter, verify eddie. >> what's wrong with twitter?

>> they just hate princeton men. >> that's right. joining the table we have -- >> i'm disgusted for you. >> we have msnbc -- >> i went to alabama. they verified me. i mean, come on. by the way, hold on a second. have you guys figured out how this -- so you know who he is? >> yeah. good guy. smart guy. >> nerdist? >> they've interviewed -- i am stumbling around, you know, podcast, and there was an extraordinary interview with paul mccartney. i have heard every interview. you ask paul mccartney what's it like being famous, you know, it's great. hey, thumbs up. he never gives anything away. these guys -- >> an hour and a half. >> an hour and a half, he -- it was the most revealing interview. i go, what did you learn? i learned a little bit about just -- this sounds horrible -- but the hell, personal, how tough it is being, like, one of the most famous people on the planet. not being able to over get out

of your car and walk a block without 87 people wanting your picture. even when you disguise yourself. i'm trying to figure out what part of me, like, they recognize. when i cover it up? is it the chin? is it the -- he actually talks about it for the first time i've ever heard. what's the cost of being famous? he talks about at one point i got disgusted at one point early on, and i said i have to make a decision. am i going to live this life, or am i not going to live this life? if i'm going to live this life, i need to shut up and live it and deal with it because i have. he talks about the separation, but it's just fascinating. he talked about the separation of being that guy up on the poster and being himself and why he doesn't let people take pictures of him on the street. he says i'll talk to them for 30 minutes but don't take my picture because then i stop being me and i start being that guy up on the poster. you are stealing from me. anyway, the most remarkable

thing is he has been interviewed -- i have heard 1,000 interviews of him through the years, and these nerdist dudes, who i never heard of, but you know the guys,ing and then you go, well, how did they get paul mccartney, and you listen to all the other people they've interviewed. jesus christ, moses, john lennon, who obviously came back on a flying saucer to do an interview with them. i cannot believe. >> how -- in the world where everyone has a podcast, how did you stumble upon this? how did you find it? >> okay. i'm really going into the weeds. >> yeah. let's stop. >> no, seriously. i got the recording studio, and it's -- i am constantly, you know, digging for -- i'm constantly working and trying to figure out. i was looking for pod costs with jeff enright who was the beatles engineer. 1966. then 1968, 1969. i couldn't find it. finally i said, screw it, i'm going to go straight to the source. then i just searched paul

mccartney and found an hour and a half interview, and that's, like, for beatle dorks like me, that's like, you know -- that's like -- >> let's do the news now. that's great. >> mike has another follow-up on this. >> let's get to politics. >> i'm interested in this. >> sent that fascinating? >> chris hardwood calls it the talking dead, the show that comes on after walking dead. he has a great podcast. >> a new survey monkey poll -- >> oh, great. going back to politics. can i leave now? i want to talk about mccartney. >> hillary clinton with a lead of at least four points in states totaling 304 electoral votes. 34 more needed than the 270 you have to have to win the presidency. in four-way matchups clinton has 11 points lead. in new hampshire and virginia, eight-point leads in -- seven points in colorado. six points in it north carolina and pennsylvania. four points in georgia, while donald trump is ahead by five in iowa, four points in nevada, three points in ohio and

arizona. just two points in florida and texas. a more extensive poll of texas from the university of houston also shows a tight race there. trump is ahead of clinton by three points. 41% -- >> let's just stop right there. three points in texas. the end is near. bring down the flag. >> what's happening? >> you know, texas has republicans that have won every state-wide office since 1992, and now there's a three-point spread between hillary clinton and donald trump? >> whoa. >> the demographics are changing in this texas, but the republican party has done a good job of mitigating and keeping diversifying population in the electorate, and clearly donald trump has fouled that up this year. >> chased them away. it's unbelievable. >> in wisconsin hillary clinton up 47% to 38%. >> i have a question. barnacle, you're a catholic. you ever heard of st. norbert? >> he was a hockey player.

>> clinton has jumped to a seven-point lead in the monmouth poll in nevada. 47%. >> thank you, mike, for your contribution. >> willie, you did some back of the envelope math, which is actually how we got to our theory of thermonuclear dynamics, which should have won us a nobel prize, and they could find us. they still haven't found bob dillon. he is still missing. can't find him anywhere. >> we invented an icy hot patch. >> we did. >> put it on your back. >> and also, i invented post-it notes. >> classic. >> yeah. actually it's in the post parade too. i didn't have to do the back of the envelope map. hillary clinton, according to this washington post poll, has leads of four points or more. outside the margin of error in states that add up to 304 electoral votes. donald trump has those same leads in states that add up to 138 electoral votes. even if he won florida, ohio,

arizona, these states that are still in flux, he doesn't get to 270. it's hard to see at least where trump's win comes from. >> right now it seems like he is just focussing his anger on how the polls suddenly aren't accurate and they don't matter. he is doing these diversion tactics, and that's probably going to be the next couple of weeks as his decline continues unless, you know, say, he has some miraculous game-changing performance tonight, which i think is highly unlikely by this state in the -- >> that phrase, as you were talking about earlier, is anger where, that seems to be the most compelling narrative of his own voice, his own campaign at this stage. >> well, and he seems to be really setting the stage for a nasty november after his loss and calling into question the veracity of the american political system, and he is clearly not planning on being a gracious loser, which i hope that he would come around and understand how important it is to the democratic process this idea that when you lose, you concede with grace.

>> do you look at these numbers? i'm thinking about texas and arizona as a long-time life-long republican, and joe too, and think now about the long-term damage that donald trump may have done just in the last 18 months? if texas is in play going forward and arizona becomes a democratic state in presidential elections, there's really no way forward for a republican candidate, and there's a new arizona poll that just came out. >> oh. >> oh, boy. >> i'm not even thinking -- >> that is a siren. >> just -- not just this election, but going forward. >> i think that's going to be the debate for the party with next cycle, the immediate next cycle. there are going to be conservatives like ted cruz will say we lost because we weren't conservative enough. there is still going to be arguments that there's going to be a pool of light voters that the party can use to win, and that's simply just not enough, and it's not a sustainable strategy if this party wants to change with america. >> by the way, i'm just checking. we just -- i love, once in a

while, getting reviews from the peeps. >> don't be on twitter, joe. >> i this i that's the worst hour of "morning joe" i have ever seen. keep your comments coming in because, you know what, it's that kind of give and take that makes right here -- >> did they offer specifics? >> i just got a yawn and a bunch of z's, and now, believe it or not, i'm getting attacked for talking about the nerdist. i tried to give the guys some, like, general population. i just kind of -- just tip of the hat. i want to help them out. i want to help people out and i'm getting attacked for that. >> who wrote that? that is so mean. >> just people out there. hey, anyway -- >> all right. >> worst hour yet. you know what, they can never take that away for me. you did something that nobody else did. hold on a second. let's go back to the arizona deal. >> let's try to do some news. >> this is news.

i want to talk more about the nerdist and paul mccartney. >> they want news. >> this is niez. mike barnacle, this is nuds. a five-point lead in arizona. arizona in many ways has been ground zero of the trump immigration message, and he is doing really well there two, three, four weeks ago even. i said really well there. he was comfortably ahead. the latest poll conducted entirely after the second debate has him down five points in arizona. >> and john mccain seems to be winning handily in arizona, having separated himself from donald trump, unlike in nevada that we talked about earlier where harry reid's seat is up, and it appears the republicans are not going to be able to grab harry reid's seat. the senate appears to be tilting democratic, the entire senate. might be democratic. the question now is this going to be a wave election? is this -- it always breaks late. now, it's not really late. it's getting there. is it going to break to such an

extent that the house could go democratic? >> i think there's certainly a possibility. i mean, paul ryan is doing everything that he can to make that differentiation, says and it has been interesting to me going out and doing these focus groups in battleground states over the past two months just how easily republicans have been able to separate themselves from donald trump. it really is a pulling down the down ballot tickets as much as i had expected, and that's simply because donald trump isn't considered a republican by most americans because he is such an anomaly. this year on the political scene. i think that's the one saving grace possibly for republicans in these tough ballots. >> mike john's response to you on twitter. not to you but somebody else about the arizona poll. he said the meltdown is upon us. just think, we start this week. it's four, five, six points. maybe seven. now you are seeing seven, eight, nine, ten, 11.

you are seeing swing state polls starting to move hillary clinton's way. if you have a meltdown over the next two weeks, then, yes, the senate is gone. the house certainly becomes -- gets into play, which means donald trump will really has to deliver an extraordinary performance tonight or else his candidacy is in deep, deep trouble, and the republican party is in deep, deep trouble. >> you know this from personal experience, having been on the ballot, usually the break occurs. >> last weekend. >> seven days at the outside. usually like four or five days prior. the last weekend before they campaign. >> right. >> this is 20 days out. >> well, exactly. that's the point. in 1980 ronald reagan and -- it all broke over the weekend. it was extraordinary. 1994. i had a poll against the democrat i was running against,

and poll came back, and i was, like, two points ahead on thursday. 1994. swing election. i ended up winning 62% to 38%. there was just a massive wave. that happens the last weekend, that's bad enough. if if, as john padora said, the meltdown is upon us now, then this is going to be a two and a half week trail of tears for republicans. >> and the clinton campaign smells blood. there's a reason we look at that arizona poll that michelle obama is going to arizona, that bernie sanders is in arizona, that chelsea clinton will be there. >> the clintons saw this a couple of days ago, didn't they? >> yeah. >> they were already in arizona. >> yeah, they were already there. they're now putting their foot on the gas and hoping to run up the score. >> i spoke to a latina activist yesterday who has been really involved with voter registration, and they've registered huge amounts of hispanic voters this season, so i do think the turnout is probably going to be incredible just because donald trump has really galvanized people to go out and vote against his

immigration rhetoric. >> so nor senator bernie sanders drew big crowds as he crisscrossed new mexico and arizona campaigning for hillary clinton. >> i am going to do everything that i can to make certain that donald trump does not become the next president of the united states. >> in three weeks we are going to be having an election of enormous consequence. in my view electing donald trump as president would be a disaster for this country and something we must not do. [ cheering ] in fact, i would suggest that mr. trump is the least qualified, the least qualified candidate in the history of this country to ever run for

president. >> well -- >> i'm sorry. i can't help but -- >> i still feel bad that we're -- how things happened with him. >> you mean, the election was rigged against him? >> eddie -- >> that part. yeah. >> are you sad that the election was rigged against bernie sanders? >> you are making fun of it. i actually think it was. >> it was rigged. don't make me -- >> they made fun of him. >> look what they wrote. the coordination between the democratic party and the clinton campaign. of course, it was rigged. eddie. >> beyond the question of whether it was rigged or not, joe, i do say it was refreshing to hear his voice because, you know, you long for the time when we were actually discussing serious issues where folks were actually putting forward imaginative policy positions to address the situation of americans in this country. but i think he is absolutely right. i mean, donald trump perhaps we would have to check the historical record, but i think he is perhaps one of the worst

candidates we've seen run for the president si of the united states, and i think to echo my friend steve schmidt, i think he represents a fundamental challenge to the institutions that undergird democracy in the united states. i think we'll see tonight in the debate whether or not donald trump chooses to double down as main who has nothing to lose, since he has been saying that to the african-american community. hey, what does he have to lose? will he just double down and speak to his base and look beyond winning the presidency, or will he actually try to speak substantively to the issues that confront the american people? ? i'm not sure. it was good to hear senator sanders' voice, although i'm not a supporter of hillary clinton. >> you know what's interesting? there was a point in time of january or february earlier this year where the candidacies of bernie sanders and donald trump were almost aligned together in terms of their audience, and if donald trump had been a more serious or more disciplined candidate, he could have picked

up on some of the threads that bernie sanders had out there with the enormous support that bernie sanders had, but he didn't have that. >> i have two tweets in a row here. >> oh, no. now what do we have? >> lol, i'm watching your show from hawaii. it's 1:00 a.m. here. i think it's funny that you are getting attacked for the nerdist. he he, fun times. >> worst hour in the history of "morning joe." >> bon ynie is watching us from athens, greece. we get a thumbs up from her. >> yea, bonnie. >> somebody said they hope the window behind me is real so i can jump out of it. and -- >> oh, twitter is so -- that's not nice. >> bleeding blue says, i love this one -- bleeding blue georgia, you're likable enough, joe. >> more mean tweets straight ahead. also ahead on "morning joe" -- >> oh, we have to show this one

right here. bring it in. >> bring it in. bring it in. >> the gif of hillary right here saying -- that's saying -- this is quoting her. he says, "if that window behind scarborough is real, let's hope he turns around and jurmps out f it head first." >> and she's nodding? >> she's nodding, why he. >> republican official who's oversee the election across the country try to counter trump's insist ens that the general election is rigged at the ballot box. ohio secretary of state joins us live. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back with more very mean tweets where. >> actually, bob dylan won the nobel prize in literature proving -- yeah. i'm on board. i love it. i love it. this is great for bob and it finally proves someone can understand what he is saying. there's just one problem. the nobel academy says it can't find bob dylan to give him his prize. he could be anywhere. but if i were looking for him

tonight, i might try the keeva auditorium in albuquerque, in m new mexico, because that's where he is. announcer: they'll test you. try to break your will. but however loud the loudness gets. however many cheese puffs may fly. you're the driver. the one in control. stand firm. just wait. [click] and move only when you hear the click that says they're buckled in for the drive.

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>> i don't want to misspeak, but when they talked last debate about creating these safe zones, oh, my gosh, i can see that coming from a national security briefing, but i've got about six or seven questions that i would want to ask regarding a safe zone and how is that going to actually end up being safe? me being the skeptic at the table. >> as a candidate for president, i can assume you asked for those intelligence reports? >> i have, and i have been denied those security briefings. >> what was the reason they gave you? >> well, i'm just not relevant really. i mean, that's what it boils down to. 10% doesn't qualify you to receive the national briefings where. >> i love it. i don't know how he does it. >> he is not at 10%. >> i'm just not relevant. >> one of the things that we're seeing now and perhaps it's one of the reasons why hillary clinton is starting to pull ahead.

i don't know exactly. >> a couple of those state poles have showed she's at three now, and he is at one in the state. when he says i'm just not relevant, it reminds me of that martin short "snl" sketch of the synchronized swimming. i'm not that strong of a swimmer. >> libertarian candidate and why he thinks he is not receiving the briefings. joining us now former mccain senior strategist and msnbc political analyst steve schmidt, and writer for "the fix" at the washington post phillip bunk. phillip's latest piece explores whether hillary clinton could actually win technical text. >> phillip, looks like she could. why? what's happening? >> it does look like she could. part of is the fact that she's

ahead by so much nationally. when she gets ahead that far -- you know, we saw this huge jump after the conventions. she's basically back there now. once you see that, it's going to pull a lot of folks to the left. the college of education, that's a demographic at the table for hillary clinton. it's a lot of ways in which this is lining up. in texas now it's a closer state than pennsylvania or wisconsin. >> right? >> we're also seeing the -- if the sin is being seen as somebody that launched her campaign attacking hispanics, attacking mexicans and that's what it was perceived as and he will argue about the exact language, but that's what it's perceived as. >> look, one of the fastest growing his tanick vote share states is georgia, and now you look at texas. you look at arizona. you look at the state of utah where the third party candidate

of evan mcmillan is taking off. all of these red states could turn blue. all of them. >> wow. >> all of them. which would mean a -- >> you agree with that the meltdown is on? it has begun? >> it has begun and has been on for some time now. it's been on for the 46 minute mark of the first debate. the first debate oefs incoherent and was unprepared. he followed up by tweeting at 3:00, 4:00, 5:00 in the morning at a miss universe, raising concerns about temperament. the friday before the tape came out, we're in meltdown. the tapes were obviously bad enough, horrific politically and also, of course, very offensive to americans. even before then i'm hearing from inside the campaign they

started bleeding out numbers when he started going after miss universe. that is what really started to cause women to flee. >> absolutely. think of skiing. you are going down a mountain. if you stay straight, the steeper the mountain, the faster you go. that's what's happening now. we're seeing these red states start to turn blue. it's the best system we have, and it's the best system in the world, and there is no systemic fraud. there has never ever ever been a candidate for president of the

united states who has questioned the legitimacy of how we choose the leaders. it is an attack on the foundations of our democracy. paul ryan is a constitutional officer. paul ryan must speak to this. it is time for republican leaders to say enough is enough. >> what you are saying is this is an opportunity for paul ryan. >> absolutely. >> marco rubio did it yesterday. >> marco rubio, to his everlasting credit, the second unprecedented part of this, is you have the active engagement of a hostile foreign power seeking to influence an american presidential election. unprecedented. it's not without accident that the person ronald reagan picked as his ambassador was the great democratic party statesman bob strauss. he says the former dnc chairman bob strauss to the soviet union to make the point that the difference of opinion in our

country are a source of our strength, not division. so when you are rooting out the republican party, rd's party, rooting on the engagement of a hostile foreign power into the middle of an election, it's unprecedented. >> maybe it's the threat to democracy that might get people to -- >> as appalling as all of these things are, the country is far stronger, but when you aim at the institutions -- >> really? >> -- of our democracy, it's at a different level. >> it had to come to that. >> and i do not mean to mitigate the attacks on disabled people or the racist or the mass ojnist statements. the country transends that. >> again, of all the things donald trump has done, says what will it be that takes him down?

what will it be that will pose the greatest threat to him? it was, the fat shaming of a miss universe. again -- >> i gra he. >> trump's own people will tell you this, that that's where the numbers collapsed among women, and they have to get those women back or it is a rout. >> many people pointed as donald trump struggled through the summer to the debates as a moment when he could change the dynamic of the race. well, he did for the worst. it weent the "access hollywood" tape. >> believe it or not. >> this started -- >> you would think. >> when hillary clinton planted that trap, she said it. she said at the end of the debate, she introduced him as -- >> she blurted it out. >> and trolled donald trump so hard that she got him to go for a week tweeting about her, as steve said, in the middle of the night. >> he stayed on that for a week, and that gave women across america -- i talked about it the night after with parents night when i was at parents night, and all the women that were outside going, oh, really?

she's fat? >> we found out there were interviews lined up and it was very well played. i think to steve's point earlier, one of the things we're seeing in new polls, new bloomberg poll came out, that men are starting to bail on donald trump as well. >> white working class -- >> even some white working class men, yes? men with college degrees more. m working class men as well. what we're starting to see is it's actually particularly college educated whites that are giving -- >> i can't believe -- they are a little troubling. >> they're not hitting -- >> what? what? are you talking in a hurry

again, alex? she doesn't even know. >> i've been following because it's my team. >> she's a huge cubs fan. i would love to get to wrigley. >> i could work that out for you. >> kie get you an invitation. >> i already have one. thanks. >> i think if if donald trump had the discipline to run on a drain the swamp message, he had the policy -- >> we've had this discussion for a year and a half. >> you're the genius, right? i don't know about that. >> donald trump calls you up where, he goes mike schmidt's brother, what are you doing tonight? >> i this i that the donald trump that we've seen in the previous two debates is donald trump. we're going to see donald trump. there is no other side to donald trump where. >> i'm asking you that. what should he do -- >> he should stay clearly and n unekwificily that it's a legitimate one. it's a sign of fitness for office when he does not he

should drive a message of change reaching out about how he is going to make middle income raised and how he is going to make their lives better, but what he needs to communicate above all else is a fitness for command to be the commander in chief of the world's most powerful military and the nuclear arsenal. he has to control his temperament problems, which are obviously massive. >> i have three quick questions for you. ready? what's the over-under on the electoral college victory for hillary clinton? >> i think she is trending over 400. >> trending over 400? >> yes. >> democrats take the senate? yes. >> democrats take the house? >> close. >> they could take it? >> if this election was today, i think they're down -- i think republicans are down 25 seats. as of today. >> with the trend line going in the wrong direction. >> poll numbers are not good on the internal numbers. >> really for the house? >> the panic is beginning. >> okay.

missiles are flying. steve schmidt, thank you so much. >> they had a misay hello to mi us. >> toss the ball around a little bit. >> okay. just ahead, things fall apart in the philippines as tensions boil over in that key u.s. ally. the video is awful. details when "morning joe" comes right back. it comes when your insurance company says they'll only pay three-quarters of what it takes to replace it. what are you supposed to do? drive three-quarters of a car? now if you had liberty mutual new car replacement™, you'd get your whole car back. i guess they don't want you driving around on three wheels. smart. with liberty mutual new car replacement™, we'll replace the full value of your car. liberty stands with you™. liberty mutual insurance. but the best place to start is in the forest. kubo: i spy something beginning with..."s" beetle: snow. kubo: no. beetle: snow covered trees.

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♪ i saw her again last night ♪ you know that i shouldn't >> 39 past the hour. ecuador has restricted the access of the internet for julian assange. now wiki leaks says secretary of state john kerry is to blame. in a series of tweets, wiki leaks said that john kerry asked ecuador to stop assange from publishing clinton docs during peace negotiations adding that the private meeting took place principally on september 26th in columbia. state department has cat go categorically denied the allegations saying any suggestion that secretary kerry or the state department were involved in shutting down wiki leaks is false. reports that secretary kerry had kwfrgs with ek kwa doorian officials about this are simply untrue, period. ecuad ecuador's government also says they did not yield to pressure

from other states and that they restricted access so as to not have an impact on the election. in the philippines things turned violent after about 1,000 protesters gathered outside the u.s. embassy demanding to end the u.s. troops in the country. i have to warn you the video might be a little disturbing to viewers. at least three people were injured after a filipino policeman drove through the crowd running over several protetsers. you may recall philippine president had some harsh words for president obama recently telling him, among other things, to go to hell. a spokeswoman for the u.s. embassy in manila says that the situation has ended and normal embassy operations have continued. we'll be following the situation there. >> wow. >> up next, we'll talk to the man who oversees ohio's elections for his thoughts that donald trump claims large scale voter fraud.

highway "morning joe" is coming right back. >> they even want to try and rig the election at the polling booths where so many cities are corrupt, and you see that. and voter fraud is all too common. then they criticize us for saying that. we have even republicans, oh, that's such a terrible thing to say. well, take a look at philadelphia what's been going on. take a look at chicago. take a look at st. louis. take a look at some of these cities. where you see things happening that are horrendous and if if you talk about them, they say bad things about you. they call you a racist.

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>> whenever things are going badly for you and you lose, you start blaming somebody else, then you don't have what it takes to be in this job. because there are a lot of times when things don't go our way. or my way. i would advise mr. trump to stop whining and go try to make his

case to get votes. >> that was president obama at the white house yesterday. joining us now secretary of state of ohio, john -- his office receives elections in that crucial battleground zat. >> why are you rigging the elections? what are you doing, dude? >> well, i try to stay out of the presidential elections as the chief elections officer, but when it travels into my lane and they talk about vote rigging -- >> kind of feel like you have to say something? >> yeah. you know, people have lost faith in their institutions, whether it's politics, media, the justice system. our system is not rigged. we make it easy to vote and hard to cheat in ohio and across the country, and people should have confidence in it. >> marco rubio pointed out there are 67 counties in florida. each county has their own supervisor of elections. i have a good friend who is one up in pensacola. each one of them run their

elections. >> is that how you are set up in ohio? >> yeah. very similarly. you know, washington doesn't have anything to do with this. these are local officials. we have 88 county boards of elections. there are two democrats and two republicans on each county board. there are your friends and neighbors that are the poll workers at the polls on election day. when we count the votes at night, that's a public meeting. the media is invited. the public is invited. there are democrats and republicans gathered right there. none of our machines are connected to the internet in any way. they can't -- they aren't at risk of cyber security attacks. this system in america and in ohio is more secure than it's ever been. we should feel better about the elections process today than wefr have. >> mr. secretary, it's willie geist. can you tell us about the history of ohio how many incidents of voter fraud there have been there? >> well, voter fraud exists. we did a survey after the last

presidential election. the number of fraud leulent cas was in the hundreds. when we catch people doing that, we prosecute them. people have gone to prison for that in our state. as i say about voter fraud, it exists. it's rare. we are building a better system every day to make sure that it doesn't happen. it's not systemic. like you have any law, people will break laws. we'll catch you. most of the time that people try to vote fraudulently, the vote is not counted because we catch it before that actually happens. there's no evidence of systemic fraud of vote rigging, anything of the sort. >> mr. secretary, are you worried that because of trump's heated rhetoric surrounding that the polls might be rigged that people are going to come and disrupt the election day process in ohio? >> i'm not. i'm really not.

because of the fact -- in ohio we see this every four years where the rhetoric heats up from both sides. democrats and republicans calling into question our elections process. before the election you hear it all. on election day it works very well. we've not had any problems in the past. i don't expect any problems. we're transparent, but you have to follow the rules. you have to sign up. we have to know who you are because we have to keep the polling locations secure and follow the rules. >> i don't expect when we get to election day that we'll see any disrupgs. >> if there are complaints, we want to hear about them. if you have any facts or evidence that something is wrong, we want to know about that in advance and whenever you

might come across those facts so that we can investigate them and determine whether or not it's just a rumor because that's what most of them are. rumors. and they are not based in fact. we'll investigate any claim of voter fraud or voter suppression. we want to make sure that people feel confident in the elections. we have to be open and transparent. >> mr. secretary, you have probably been the loudest critic of donald trump saying that the polling places have been rigged, and you also said you are still going to vote for donald trump. how do you reconcile those two things. you are offended by what he is saying about the electoral process, but you are still willing to cast your vote for him? >> well, like most americans, i don't really think much of either presidential candidate. i'm not a fan of either, but i'm a republican, and i believe that donald trump will appoint people to government that will better reflect my views of the world. you have to make a choice. are you going to try to change the republican party from inside the process, or are you going to go outside? i'm just one of the -- i'm a person that believes in changing the process -- changing our

candidates, changing the future of our party from inside the process, and that's what i'm going to do this election cycle. >> all right. >> still latest clinton e-mail controversy. the retired fbi official at the center of the quid pro quo allegation tells his side of the story. "morning joe" is coming right back. anyone with type 2 diabetes knows how it feels to see your numbs go up, despite your best efforts. but what if you could turn things around? what if you could... love your numbers? discover once-daily invokana®. it's the #1 prescribed sglt2 inhibitor that works to lower a1c. a pill taken just once in the morning, invokana® is used along with diet and exercise to significantly lower blood sugar in adults with type 2 diabetes. in fact, it's been proven to be more effective at lowering

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oh, my gosh. >> are we going to have bones notice building? >> he'll have some role. somebody's hired him.

>> i think he's working for jimmy kimmel. >> that's the bones. >> i can't believe i know that. >> why do you know that? >> i don't know. okay. up next, new battleground polls out this morning show donald trump has a lot of ground to make up in the final 20 days of campaigning, and tonight's debate is one of his time chances to turn things around. republicans, mike murphy and halpern join the conversation. back in a moment. with directv and at&t you can stream your favorite shows without using your data. that makes you more powerful than being stuck in an elevator with a guy with overactive sweat glands. sorry, rode my bike today. cool. it's your tv, take it with you. watch all your live channels, on your devices, data-free. i'm going to the bank, to discuss a mortgage.

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good morning. wednesday, october 19th. welcome to "morning joe." with us on set we have mike barnacle. chair of the department -- >> wait, wait, wait. what's going on with you. are you guys asleep? >> they are. >> contributor, mike barnacle. >> all right. author of the book democracy in black, eddie cloud jr. i reached out. >> what's it take? >> you know why they're not doing it, they hate you because you are a princeton man. >> that makes sense. >> abuse me with the eggs.

>> all right. >> swing state polls. >> washington post survey monkey, swing state polls devastating mike barnacle and texas deep in the heart of texas. >> jump ball. >> a canary flutters coughing from a coal mine. >> jump ball in texas. hard to believe. >> not just this poll in texas. there have been three reputable polls that have shown the same thing, three or four-point spread in texas. >> democratic strategists have been saying for years that in time texas will be competitive. >> yeah. >> on the electoral map but they were expecting that to happen eight years from now, maybe 12 years from now. it's happening right now. it's competitive. >> take a look at the new survey monkey poll of 15 battle grounds conducted with the washington post. it shows hillary clinton with the lead of at least 4 points in

states totaling 304 electoral votes, 34 more than the 270 needed to win the presidency. in four-way match-ups clinton has an 11 point lead in new hampshire and virginia. 8 point leads in michigan and new mexico. 7 points in colorado. 6 points in north carolina and pennsylvania, 4 points in georgia. while donald trump is ahead by 5 in iowa, 4 points in nevada, 3 points in ohio and arizona and just 2 points in florida and texas. a more extensive poll of texas from the university of houston also shows a tight race there. trump is ahead of clinton by 3 points, 41% to clinton's 38%. in wisconsin a saint nor bert college poll puts clinton ahead by 8 points, 47% to trump's 39% and at 3% green party candidate jill stein pulls ahead of gary johnson down 1%. in nevada clinton has jumped to

a 7 point lead in the monmouth poll. 47% to 40%. >> so mike barnacle, you go through all the polls. if you want three numbers to talk about just how dramatic the polling has gone state by state because yesterday we were showing three swing states that showed the race close in at least those three swing states. look at texas, look at georgia, and look at arizona. and any republican nominee struggling with those three states, he's down four points right now in georgia, but any republican nominee in late october going into the last debate is in big trouble. >> well, and there's another state to throw in there, too, in terms of the ramifications for the united states. that's nevada. where harry reid's seat is up. and i think if you were talking to anybody in the business, six

months, a year ago they felt fairly comfortable that a republican would grab that seat from harry reid. it appears that is seriously in question. >> look at the swing in the last month, too, joe. it's almost 10 points since september 13th. >> you know what's happening, this underlines, eddie, the problem republicans have. he has distanced himself from republican -- from the republican nominee, donald trump, and now he's bleeding out. >> it is a lose-lose for a lot of these republican candidates. >> right. we saw this. we knew this was going to happen, right? clinton gave them an opening that, you know, donald trump is unlike any republican -- he's unlike the republicans i've dealt with in the past so there was an opening. that gave them space down ballot. now he's like velcro, right? some of them can't get away from it. as a result if they distance themselves, they're done. if they're connected to him. they're done. >> if they're connected too closely, if they're distanced, we've seen nevada that in a

close race like nevada, distancing themselves has certainly hurt. >> right. >> but you have portman who's doing very well. washington post said marco rubio is in a tighter race. unexpected. one other bit of news, there are some political reports that have moved actually colorado and virginia into the clinton camp. >> out of reach. >> safely out of reach which means donald trump's path to 270 has to go through pennsylvania and that ain't happening. >> yeah. so all of this seems to have shaken donald trump's confidence in polls. remember, he always pulled them out of his pocket and read them to his audiences. they were once a staple of his campaign rallies. trump did not read the polls to his audiences in colorado yesterday because he says they're no longer accurate. >> even though we're doing pretty good in the polls, i don't believe the polls anymore. i don't believe them.

i don't believe them, and if there's one or two bad ones, that's the only one they show. believe me, folks, we're doing great. now they say we're tied in colorado. i don't think so. i'll be honest. i mean, something's going on here. something. you can't believe anything you see. i don't even believe the polls. i see these polls and they're not terrible. they're sort of good. actually, if the people come out and vote, they're very nervous. i have a feeling this is another brexit. >> willie, that is the hope of many trump supporters. we have another brexit. if it's 2, 3, 4 points maybe it's another brexit. if it's 7, 8, 9, 10, which has been the trend across this week, there's not that much of a hidden bud anywhere. >> if you do a back of the envelope map on this washington post story, hillary clinton has leads of 4 points or more outside of the margin of error

in states that add up to 304 electoral votes. trump has 138 electoral votes. even if he won arizona, ohio, florida, he's still based on that map doesn't get to 270. it's hard to see at this point any path for donald trump. >> there is no path, mike, without a let's say five-point swing in these swing states that we're looking at yesterday. and what's that -- i guess that leads to the next story which is the third debate battle, our equivalent of the thriller in manila in 2016 politics. what does donald trump have to do? can he do anything tonight other than bring barack obama's half brother to the debate to pick up five points? >> by the way, it's a good lesson for us all. i remember my first campaign school. i said what's the number one rule? they said if you have a half

brother who's kenyan, always be nice to him. >> you've always prepared that. >> i said that and i said stop going 90 miles an hour. >> listen, we all have relatives, mr. president. we understand. >> yeah. >> we understand. we all have relatives and we're prays for you and the extended family. >> i shudder to think of what he might do tonight. >> but what would you have him do to pick up five points? >> i think it's going to be a tough night for him. >> he turns it around with at least four or five points based on the polls yesterday or it's a landslide. how does he do it? >> well, i would have -- how would i have him do it? >> how would you have him do it? nkts there's no way in the world he would do it. i would have him talk calmly and confidently about the bulk of his supporters and how much they've been neglected and forgotten by the establishment in washington, the establishment on wall street but calmly and confidently, but he cannot do

that. because he has historically over the months of his campaign confused what he sees and hears in the hall in front of him for the country. he's been speaking to an echo chamber for over a year. he gets that adulation from the crowd and that's all he hears. that's all he feels. he doesn't -- >> the crowd. >> he doesn't feel the country. >> they're very big crowds and for, eddie, the first nine months, 10 months, 11 months, 12 months of the campaign, big crowds equal big poll results equal big victories what would you have donald trump do tonight if you were flying out to las vegas and had his ear and he were to listen to you. >> that would be hilarious

obviously. people who are struggling. what i suspect is something in between. beware of the person who has nothing to lose. >> right. >> i think he's going to double down on the strategy that we saw in the second debate and instead of thinking about growing those folks who are supporting him, he's going to come in really hard. >> that's all he's got. that's all he's got. >> if he does that, mike barnacle, let's be really blunt about this, if he does that and if what we're hearing about trump tv is true and if that's what they're focusing on right now, then your strategy for winning the presidency, which he may think at this point is beyond reach is far different than your strategy the day after, which is getting a hard core 37 to 40%, even a 35 to 38%

group of supporters who are aggrieved and who believe the system is rigged and then selling subscriptions to them for $9.99 a month to stream trump tv. and that seems to be the message right now. boiling it down to the core. a no apologies tour. >> what would you do if you had donald trump's ear? if his ears are blocked the other day through an odd set of circumstances, don't ask me how -- >> please, i hope this story doesn't end up with you and donald trump. >> no. i spent about three hours with someone who is playing a very significant role in donald trump's campaign. i asked this person, i said, does trump realize the damage that he is doing to himself and to the process by continually harping on a rigged election and

in certain places, you know, the election is going to be rigged. the response was, no, he does not realize it because he is so filled with anger about the potential -- about the prospect of losing that he can't see beyond that. he's so filled with rage that that's what's fueling his campaign. >> really? i must say i haven't picked that up. i picked up a more calculated -- more calculated trump. >> calculated for beyond the election. >> for beyond the election. trump tv. >> more calculated trump and that understands that you have your hard core group of 37%, 36, what is that, 40 million people out there? >> yeah. >> roger ales since 1996, even before all of these stories came out over the past six months, was never accepted by polite society in new york city.

people always, always besmirched his character even before all of these allegations came out against him. donald trump, willie, doesn't need to be accepted by polite society to make hundreds of millions of dollars on trump tv. >> think about how depressing that is though for republicans who don't want hillary clinton to be president, that they have a candidate who's thinking about his tv network and not becoming president and installing supreme court justices. he put out in the last couple of days a few things that a real presidential campaign would put out. ethics reform and congressional term limits. if you watched his speeches, his speeches weren't about that. his speeches were about the conspiracies now. he said in that clip we just played, quote, you can't believe anything you see. he's got the conspiratorial mind. he wants everybody to know this is rigged and fixed. if hillary clinton wins, it won't be fair. we will have to do something

about it. buy wi we will have to take our country back another way. >> he knows how to go in, he knows how to read a crowd. people that are going to trump rallies do not want his four point plan for judicial reform. >> right. >> they want to hear about how the media is lying to them, about how washington is rigged and how everything that's happened over the last 30 years from bad leadership from the bushes and clintons. >> they trust however he does how he does, he does things well. >> that he's going to figure out how to get through that. >> yeah. >> well, he's an outsider and he proves that every day. he's an outsider. they want to hear an outsider whale against the system. still ahead on "morning joe," we'll go live to las vegas. mark halpern joins us. plus, it's october 2016. there are still new questions about how the investigation into hillary clinton's e-mail server was handled.

we'll get into that. later, senator mark warner of virginia will join us. first, bill karins with a check on the forecast. overnight we heard pictures and got information in from los angeles area. new fire started. red flag warning. the winds are gusting. this is the porter ranch area 30 miles to the northwest of downtown los angeles. very remote area. it's being fought mostly from the air. you can see one of the helicopters dropping the water. it started as a three acre blaze, quickly up to 100 acres throughout the overnight hours. conditions are dangerous today. it's going to be in the 90ed. very windy from san diego northward especially through all the mountainous areas. let's talk about the other huge story. anywhere from texas to the east coast it's felt like summer. morning lows have been in the 60s, humidity has been up. temperatures once again near record highs. baltimore, philly, new york city, hartford. mid 80s this time of year and baltimore is relatively unheard of especially with the humidity

levels. southeast we're not alone. little rock, nashville, savannah, all with record highs today. tomorrow we have one more day of record heat in the southeast. the northeast will be clearing it out. as far as the rest of the forecast goes, any travel concerns out there today and tomorrow it looks like the west is going to stay very hot. l.a. at 93 degrees is not very normal as we're going to go throughout the next couple of days. we are going to cool things off tomorrow. we have a rainy forecast setting up for areas of ohio, western pennsylvania and western new york. if you have weekend plans in new england, i know the leaves are at their peak, it looks rainy and it looks windy. exactly the opposite of what we are hoping for. new york city and times square, this should be our last 80 degree day for a long time. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. when it comes to healthcare, seconds can mean the difference between life and death. for partners in health, time is life. we have 18,000 people

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brian mccally tells the watching top post that in may of 2015 he and undersecretary of state patrick kennedy spoke about doing a favor for each other. mccally had been trying to get the state department to approve two fbi employees going back into baghdad. mccally asked kennedy to send him the e-mail but when mccally said he learned the e-mail concerned the attack on the u.s. diplomatic facility in benghazi he said he turned kennedy down. i said, absolutely not.

i can't help you. and he took that and it was fine, said mccally. both the fbi and state say the alleged quid pro quo never happened. in a statement kennedy, who is a career foreign service officer said in part that he wanted to better understand a proposal the fbi had made to upgrade one of former secretary of state's e-mails prior to its public release and that the two matters were not linked. there was no quid pro quo nor was there any bargaining. h'm. >> well, there wasn't any bargaining because fbi agents said no. in fact, kennedy said, i need a favor. and then he said, well, we need some help ourselves and then he told him what favor he needed and the fbi agent shut it down. >> bob good lock called to

investigate. >> remember that scene in "fletch" where you had the corrupt cop that comes in as fletch is about to get killed and chevy chase goes, oh, great, the police. he's going to get shot by the police. oh, great, the attorney general, she'll clear this up. >> national security interests for plainly political purposes is appalling and may rise to the level of a -- >> i don't know about that. >> come on. >> i mean, i don't know about that. i do know -- i do know though that kennedy clearly tried to have a quid pro quo. the fbi agent found out what he wanted and they said no. >> and there was the attempt and there was the bargaining. the fbi guy said no. as willie's fbi agent said, he didn't push, nothing, it was the end of it. i'll trade you this for that. he said no. >> it was a proposed quid pro quo and it only didn't become a

quid pro quo because the fbi agent said no. >> you wonder what other -- whatever. shouldn't have a private server, okay? you shouldn't have one. >> the original sin. >> because that's -- that's deceitful, right? >> yes. >> yes. >> well, it's also the core of the biggest weakness of her campaign thus far, the private server. >> everyone is saying, no quid pro quo. stop picking on the clintons. we're not. just don't get a private server next time. oh, my god. >> so wikileaks, they've been putting stuff out and it keeps coming out. >> horrible. >> and it's a lot of this stuff if, again, if marco rubio, we've said this before, or jeb bush or some of these other candidates, we'd only be talking about wikileaks and the race would in effect be over and hillary clinton might even be in legal trouble after the election but that's not the case and she's

going to get elected if those polls hold up. i want to say right now weeks before the election that the republicans will not only be doing a disservice to the country but a disservice to themselves if they start talking about felonies and crimes. >> absolutely. >> and investigations. >> leave it. >> over the next four years. and i will say, if donald trump, who has an outside chance if things turn around, if donald trump wins, i say the same thing to the democrats. you can't spend the next four years investigating and, you know, claiming felonies here. we've got to stop this as a country. >> we talked about supreme court justices and appointments a couple of days ago. everybody has got to put their political weapons down. >> i mean, we've had eight years, maybe longer, actually, but specifically the last eight years where the wheels of government have been frozen because both sides go at each

other in terms of trying to delegitimize president obama's presidency. >> i would say 16. george w. bush was called a nazi. >> 16. >> when are they going to stop doing this and govern. that's the question. >> it is. you can see it coming. like my old torts professor said, you should see this next question coming like a freight train out of the mist. we should see this coming, eddie, that if hillary clinton wins, there's going to be one chairman, chair woman after another on the republican side talking about investigations and if they spend their last two weeks talking about how they're going to investigate hillary clinton, they're going to help elect a democratic house and a democratic senate. that's what they're going to do because republicans want to see washington work and they don't want their chair men and chair women spending four years investigating other people, they want them working for the

people. >> yeah, they want them working and they want to work. they want their lives to fundamentally be transform. they want to be able to afford college for their kids. they want to be able to retire. i mean, the basic things we've been talking about on this show, right? but then what do you do? you have senator mccain say that they're probably going to block her supreme court nominations. we're already hearing before she even gets elected that the opposition will be as forceful and as strong as it was when barack obama was elected. coming up on "morning joe," his fellow senator for virginia is now a candidate for vice president. we'll talk with mark warner about whether donald trump has a chance to win his home state as he suddenly pours millions into an ad campaign there. as we go to break, mike pence tours that north carolina field office that was firebombed and he has some criticism ft. meade yeah ovmedia over the covf it. does he have a point? we're back after this.

>> i'm here to call attention to an act of terrorism on the orange county headlines. >> this has gotten international media attention and i can't help it. bring an attack in this county on the other political. no media coverage. it will be significantly different and i think most of the american people know that. yu don't cook. you're not a firefighter, if you don't fight fires. or a coach, if you don't coach. and you can't be our leader, if you don't lead. our next president needs to take action on social security, or future generations could lose up to $10,000 a year. we're working hard, what about you? hey candidates, do your jobs. keep social security strong. [music] jess: hey look, it's those guys. shawn: look at those pearly whites, man.

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this election is not being

rigged and let me explain why it's not being rigged in florida and why i hope he stops saying that, why he should stop saying that. we have our own elections. there is not a 67 county conspiracy. seco second, the governor of the state of florida is a republican who appoints the people that run the division of elections. third, there is no evidence behind any of this. so this should not continue to be said. this is a state that literally has millions of people who came here because they couldn't vote in the nation of their birth. it would be a tragedy if they gave up their vote here as well. >> wow. >> marco rubio. >> marco rubio distancing himself from donald trump's claims. >> proving, willie, once again that i was right. >> this morning he's drawing another line in the sand. >> right there. >> some republicans --

>> i like this kid. >> a lot of e-mails stolen from clinton campaign chair john podesta and being posted online by wikileaks. senator rubio standing up saying no more. in a statement he said, quote, i will not discuss any issues that have become public solely on the basis of wikileaks. as our intelligence agencies have said, these are an effort to interfere with our electoral process and i will not indulge it. >> he called that on my part buying low, selling high. >> he called that his e-mails are next. that's what's going on there. further, i want to warn my fellow republicans who may want to capitalize politically, today it is the democrats, tomorrow it could be us. >> amen, brother. you want your e-mail, gone through for decades? no, no. with us now from vegas, managing editor of bloomberg politics. >> halpern. >> look at him. >> airs every night at 6:00 p.m.

>> ferris wheel. >> causes fans to go just as crazy as they did when the beatles appeared on "the "ed sullivan show."" host of the podcast changing the way we look at life, mike murphy. >> the meltdown, well, it's gone in earnest, it seems. >> yes. yeah. you can kind of hear godzilla thumping towards the city in the distance. >> boom. >> yeah. everything is shaking every four seconds. it's going to be bad for trump though the polling now, which is far from infallible shows a lot of ticket splitting so we're doing better than i'd expect in the senate races. the presidential thing is looking like a wipeout. >> you remember, mark halpern, that today is just a snapshot of what today is but you look at trend lines for donald trump and even republicans and right now as of today before the third and final debate it is bleak with trump down 11 in new hampshire,

down 11 in virginia, down 8 in michigan, down 7 in colorado, down 6 in north carolina, down 6 in pennsylvania, down 4 in georgia and, mark halpern, the one that a lot of people have been talking about for the past 24 hours, texas or as peggy hill says, texas. it's now only plus 2 for trump. >> hillary clinton today is more likely to win in a landslide that would not only have an impact on this race but realign the country politically than donald trump is to win narrowly or at all. he's got the debate tonight. he is now fulfilling the prophecy of mike murphy and others who said this guy would be a 38% candidate and he would bring the parties down, not just in terms of this result but again the image of the party. >> so do you see any reason that these trend lines don't reverse themselves? >> well, there's a couple of things. first of all, the state polls are not as bad. if he wins texas by one vote or

five percentage points, he still gets the electoral votes. reince priebus said they had to run a perfect race in order to win. he has not run a perfect race. i can get him to 265. north carolina is a challenge for him. if he can find a way to win there he can get to 265. that requires running the table. if you're losing nationally by 8, you're not going to win any of the swing states. >> you look, mike murphy, at the polls, it had north carolina as a draw. you look at the post survey monkey, down 6. same thing with nevada, a draw. basically within the margin of error. you look at the polls yesterday he's down i think 6 in nevada. he's down. just depends on which one is right. if he's down -- if he doesn't win north carolina, if he doesn't win nevada, lock the door. >> yeah. you look at the trend. the country is kind of decided on him. once that begins, it's bad. now maybe we're seeing a bhowho

new trump at the debate. i wouldn't bet more than 20 cents on it. i think we're going to see a cornered, angry, claws out trump. >> mike, you've been warning about the demographic ties unless they change the way they do business. the texas polls are obviously somewhat about trump but they're also about demographics. has he just sort of accelerated the problem for republicans in places like arizona? >> i'd like to joke. he takes all the normal republican demography trouble, we're only competitive with white voters, and he adds his trump backspin with women and tilts into the minority problems. >> here's our problem. you and i, i don't know if you're still a republican or not. >> i am. >> when i say that, people go i'm not a republican anymore. for those of us who are going to remain a republican, our problem is he's built a lab to lose the general election. unfortunately 2016 he was built

in a lab to win the primary. it's important to for us to look at 50 years ago this november is when the south became less solid for democrats, when we started getting white working class folks and we started losing black voters in droves. >> that's what jeb bush was getting at when he wise cracked that you have to lose the primary now to win the general. the inseptember tifs are opposite. winning the republican primary becomes step one to blowing the general election. we have to change the mechanics of the republican primary or we're not going to see a victory speech in a long, long time in a presidential election. >> is this a case of the chickens coming home to roost? >> cartoon. >> it was the reality of our primary this time, 45% of our primary voters getting us to a place where we're now on a bender and it's bad in the general. in 2018, i hate to be talking about the next election, but 24 months in the off year election when we do better even for our

flawed appeal, we have a lot of senate races we can probably win. we're just wounded. >> that's the thing, mark halpern. you know, it's a tale of two political parties. also a tale -- well, no, no, it's not. you've got the republican party that has more house seats in the u.s. house since 1928. they own the senate. they own 60% of the governor's mansions. you have to go back to the 1920s, at this point, pretrump election for the republican party to have more power than it has today and yet republicans can't win the presidency. >> all true and that won't be wiped away completely even if trump completely craters. at the same time, if trump ends up losing badly, he's on the trajectory to lose badly, you're going to see republicans really fight about why that happened, as you said before, you're going to see republicans question the

way they nominate someone who won the nomination more easily than anyone's won the nomination. yet if he doesn't win you will see some white hats. the congressional candidates are surprisingly strong in every public and private poll i've seen. if trump doesn't break 40, 42% nationally, you're going to see some could he lateral damage down ballot. >> quick prediction, you're going to see a fight in the party for what i call victory delegates. >> mike murphy, thank you. >> that would be good. up next, the senior senator from virginia. mark warner joins the table. ahead at 9:00 a.m., trump's campaign manager kellyanne conway joins stephanie rule with a preview of that campaign's debate strategy. we'll be right back. cops and robbers. yeah. nachos and karate. ahh. not that one so much.

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in 22 days this process is going to be over. i think hillary clinton is going to be elected president. i think she's got a record of working with both sides and there are a whole lot of us in both political parties that know that we deserve our 8% raise and we've got -- we take these jobs because we want to -- >> hold it. i like this. i like this. >> is there any feeling among senators that you're tired of not being able to get anything done? >> amen. and the challenge will be if we

don't put points on the board between january and the august recess, then we will go back into lock down gridlock because of the '18 cycle. i think part of the challenge that president-elect clinton is going to have is going to be to partially change the narrative. if we simply come out of the box with preestablished bills that have already been voted down, even the men and women that i work with on the republican side, a lot of folks who want to get out of the box as well, we've got to change the narrative. we have to find a way to say how do we get to yes? politics is the only business where you can spend your career simply saying no. >> i love that. how do we get to yes? willie geist? >> as somebody who's worked in the private sector and knows how to get things done that way, what would you recommend bringing that expertise to washington? how can we change the dynamic? because the impression from the outside is that nothing gets done. maybe that's not totally fair.

some things do get done. how can we change it, practically? >> let me give you two examples. i think there is a great appetite, every american knows, our infrastructure is crumbling. there ought to be a way to get to yes to say how do we finance and fund infrastructure. the fact that we're not putting out 50 year bonds at these interest rates to reinvest in infrastructure, there is a way to get to yes. i have to build broad bipartisan support. let me give you another one. one of the things that was happening in our economy. 1/3 of the work force is working in some level of independent contractor, part-time jobs. they have no social insurance. if we started to say the social contract that was created in the '30s and '40s has changed, we have to figure out a social contract for where the work force is today, i think that's portable benefits. that's not a democrat/republican issue. >> why don't those things get done? that's my question. what's impeding that process?

>> the challenge is because we've locked into traditional issues. there's going to be a fresh start. the great thing about our country, never bet against america. we've got a fresh start and there will be a window from election to spring, particularly the first ten months of next year when congress has to meet the new administration halfway. >> eddie? >> what's changing this narrative? what does that look like? if i canni particularly for the most vulnerable. what does that mean? >> the efforts of what happens in washington is going to affect the lives of the most vulnerable. the truth is right now with the changing nature of work, there's really no insoenttive for any company to invest in anybody that's middle income or lower income. how do you change that? again, democrat or republican. i actually think hillary clinton is going to be willing to meet a congressman willing to put out ideas midway. that's the optimism. they're all in the pessimism. this last debate, this is going

to play itself out and there is going to be a fresh start. that's where we've got to -- all of us have to come together and say, the country can do this. >> mark halpern. >> let's talk about a president clinton meeting halfway if it's president clip ton, speaker ryan, majority leader schumer, what would you recommend they do for tax reform? >> i think we have to do tax reform. the world has changed. we have the highest tax rate on the business side in the world. out of the 34 industrial nations in the world we're 31st in terms of tax revenue. i think we're going to have to look at a new revenue source, like a carbon tax. people are going to get to the kind of rates we need for businesses to stay competitive in the world. i think, again, particularly from the business community side, a real opening to that. so whether -- where president clinton will come down on that, that will be part of the debate coming forward. what i would hope we wouldn't do

with that kind of lineup is to immediately simply bring out bills that have already been litigatesed, people have already had votes and expect just because we've got i think a majority in the senate, a new president clinton, you know, to simply think that's going to change people's position if we don't change the narrative. >> senator mark warner. >> thank you so much. >> thanks, guys. >> almost over. >> somewhat hopeful. >> almost over. >> yeah. >> amen. >> amen. >> you weren't sugar coating too much there. all right. up next, define desperation. hundreds of civilians flee mosul, iraq, to stream into syria. the latest on the assault to take back the city from isis in just a moment. d i would always answer hispanic. so when i got my ancestry dna results it was a shocker. i'm everything. i'm from all nations. i would look at forms now and wonder what do i mark? because i'm everything. and i marked other. discover the story only your dna can tell.

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visit pge.com/safety together, we're building a better california. the american supported operation to retake mosul is making slow but steady progress. commanders overseas say the mission is so far going according to plan but are warning about possible isis attacks in the west in retaliation. nbc's richard engel is at an airfield just south of mosul. he spoke exclusively with the major general in charge of the american effort. >> reporter: how's it going? >> it's going well. >> reporter: in his first interview since the offensive to push isis out of mosul began, major general gary velesky said his troops are providing air support and heavy artillery but not leading this charge.

>> the iraqis have the momentum, they know it. they want to get there as quickly as they can. >> reporter: we followed iraqi troops to the front lines south of mosul to see for ourselves. we made our way to the newly liberated village of hud. she's happy, said a man, pushing his 80-year-old grandmother. she's happy to see the soldiers. but then why were these people carrying white flags and leaving their village? because iraqi troops in their rush to get to mosul have moved on even though villagers say there are still isis fighters here. and what we saw next was a war planner's worst nightmare. entering the sunni village were shiite militias. in a country that's seen civil war between these two sects of islam, it's a dangerous mix, but what happens here could have international consequences as well. 1yer7

general volesky is afraid in retaliation for losing mosul, they could attack the west. >> that's what we're worried about from my perspective back at home, when mosul falls, how are they going to try to deflect the attention. >> reporter: but for now volesky's troops are focusing on the task at hand. this is where the caliphate was born and it's here where the general believes will die. >> no caliphate. >> reporter: no mosul, no caliphate? >> not in iraq clearly. >> reporter: this battle is beginning and these are just the first of what aid agencies warn could be more than 1 million people driven from their homes. they suffered under isis, now they're paying the price for yet another fight for mosul. >> nbc's richard engel reporting for us there. we'll be right back with more "morning joe." start yours with philips sonicare, the no.1 choice of dentists. compared to oral-b 7000, philips sonicare flexcare platinum removes significantly more plaque.

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all donald trump's talk of stealing the election has the people bloomberg politics has them thinking of "oceans 11." here's their take on taking on the movie's plot. this is an excuse for a cameo. >> no. no. >> from the shirtless donny deuts deutsch. >> no! >> you want to knock over a casino? an election? >> not just any election. >> do you believe this election could be rigged?

>> the presidential election? >> this is going to be a 2 1/2 billion dollar presidential campaign. >> do you have any idea how impossible it is to rig an election? >> millions of people are going to be watching this. >> everyone's on the lookout. >> control the binder, control the moderator. >> how do we get the binder? >> we've got to get to the debate. >> you guys know how to get into this debate? >> donnie's got a lot of free time, doesn't he? >> oh, my gosh. >> rolled up to his apartment. they found him the way he appeared in that shot. >> did he have a little duck in the tub with him. >> i think he's -- >> mark halpern, donny deutsch in a hot tub, i'm not so sure. >> kind of want to be sick now. >> we have done a lot of research of what people wanted and we delivered. >> he was playing the role of ellie gould, i think. >> okay. >> but gould had a robe on as i recall. >> yes, yeah. >> at the very least.

>> again, first rule in vegas, give the people what they want. >> there we go. >> i don't know what people you're talking about, but it's not the people that we know. let's talk about what we learned today. mark, why don't we start with you in vegas. what a perfect place for the third and final debate. >> reporter: it is. i learned that the republicans are restive and disupp desponde. >> willie? >> along those lines i learned from steve schmidt who's been through a few of these presidential campaigns that the republican party is on the brink of an electoral catastrophe, to use his term. >> yeah. >> mike? >> i learned that off of the news clip that we showed of richard engel that iraq is just -- and mosul is just a continuing nightmare that's going to be with us for a generation. >> eddie? >> henry david thoreau, thinking about him. >> well now. >> we have to emerge from this thick fog soon. >> goodness gracious. that was eloquent. i learned that this is the first

year princeton university is going to offer a degree in african-american studies. that's fantastic. >> excited about that. >> joe? >> i'm with mike. we just see the human suffering in syria unparalleled and the fact that, again, the west has done largely nothing about the pain and the agony and the suffering, the unspeakable suffering in places like aleppo. it's just heartbreaking. and i hope whoever is elected president of the united states can actually must jerel together an international coalition that will actually bring some relief to the victims. >> that does it for us for now. stephanie rule picks up the coverage right now live from the debate site in las vegas.